Discussion: World Oil Reserves

A forum member writes: World oil reserves are starting to decline. Not only are we competing with developing nations for more oil, but 18 large producer countries are producing less as their reserves dwindle. I remember reading an article in either the Atlantic Monthly or Scientific American 40 years ago predicting that oil production would peak in the year 2000 (close enough to be considered accurate), at a time when demographics and industrial growth would increase demand, creating severe economic disruption. The predictions I saw 40 years ago showed a graph with a precipitous downward fall of production that translated into hardship. Kind of like the burst of the dot.com bubble, except that people don't just lose their discretionary investment money. Rising oil prices dig directly into day to day living expenses of the average person. Man may invent or discover some new source of cheap energy to replace oil, but I think it's mostly optimistic speculation. If there is something better, I don't know what it would be.

This certainly sounds like it could just be hysteria, but at the same time it’s obviously true that world oil reserves are not infinite. Demand is increasing yearly and if production hasn’t peaked yet it will at some point — and we’ll have to do something about it eventually. Doesn’t it make sense, then, to start trying now? Read More...