After a nice explanation of how a conclave actually functions, Allen goes on to describe the various political factions at work within the Catholic hierarchy. The cardinals themselves would deny that they belong to any political parties and it is true that they don’t exist in the traditional sense, but factions with relatively coherent viewpoints are present and they do vie with one another for power. Some cardinals may belong to more than one faction, depending upon the issue at hand.
There is the “Border Patrol” that is driven by a need to enforce the “borders” of orthodoxy, even at the expense of social popularity. There is the “Salt of the Earth” party that is chiefly concerned with transforming the culture in which Catholicism can be found. For conservatives, this means ensuring that political leaders adhere to Catholic policy and enforce Catholic doctrine with the power of the state. For liberals, this means working towards greater social justice and encouraging social systems, rather than the state, to promote Catholic teachings about a just society. Finally, there is the “Reform Party” that seeks a general transformation of the Catholic Church by encouraging greater participation by the laity, less centralized control, and making the church more ecumenical generally.
Then, of course, Allen discusses a large group of first and second tier candidates (by which he means definite front-runners and “the rest of the field”) for the next pope. I won’t go into all of them and will just say that if you read this and pay attention to the names, you’ll be in great shape to better understand what direction the College of Cardinals wants the Catholic Church to go simply by knowing the name they pick (assuming they don’t pick someone Allen didn’t think to mention).
Conclave: The Politics, Personalities, and Process of the Next Papal Election
Personally, my own prediction is that they are likely to go with someone older who probably won’t be around too long. They could go with a dramatic choice, like someone from Africa, but they just did that with John Paul II (being from Poland) and most of the African candidates are relatively young. I have the feeling that the cardinals will prefer someone who won’t make any shifts in any particular direction, giving them a few more years to sort out John Paul’s legacy. That will help them decide which of his policies they want to continue and which they would rather have changed.
Whatever happens in the end, though, I can say with confidence that people who read John L. Allen, Jr.’s book on the papacy and the next conclave will be in a far better position to know what is going when the time comes. Even better, if the next pope is someone Allen profiles here then readers of his book will immediately know something about him, something about why he was likely chosen, and therefore something about which direction the Catholic Church will take in the coming years.
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