SEARCHing for Truth
Dateline: November 10, 1999
What is Skepticism?
Skepticism isn't anything odd or esoteric or foreign to the human condition - indeed, it travels with us every day in some fashion or other. How many people out there purchase a used car without some modicum of skepticism about the salesman's claims? Instead, most realize that the chances for deception or mistakes are good enough that they should ask questions, look at the car themselves or even have an independent mechanic inspect the vehicle. Disagreeing or outright distrusting the salesman may not be pleasant or comfortable, but we all know why it's necessary. Unmitigated credulity carries obvious consequences, and if you don't pay the price for it now, you will certainly pay for it later.
| Quote of the week: The fundamentalists, by "knowing" the answers before they start [examining evolution], and then forcing nature into the straitjacket of their discredited preconceptions, lie outside the domain of science - or of any honest intellectual inquiry. - Stephen Jay Gould, Bully for Brontosaurus |
Does any of that require a Ph.D. in science or philosophy? Hardly - basic skepticism is something which is easily learned from example with no classroom training required. Unfortunately, the typical ways of learning skepticism encourage neither a formalized method which can eliminate errors nor the value of applying skepticism broadly. It is a sad but all too common fact that while people are sufficiently skeptical in some areas of life, they fail to apply the skepticism they know to other areas.
Social Credulity
Why is credulity rampant? Well, skepticism is dangerous - it directly challenges the established institutions of society. If we teach our children to be critical and skeptical of the things told to them by authorities they might not confine their questioning to used car salesmen, advertisements for alcohol and newspaper astrology columns. What if they start asking questions about our current political, religious and economic institutions? Where would we be if they didn't accept the status quo we're handing them? What if they actually start to question their parents and teachers? That's probably why it isn't taught in schools in any explicit manner.
One method of combatting the failure to apply skeptical thinking broadly is the aforementioned formalization of skepticism. By thinking consciously and deliberately on how to be skeptical and how to apply skeptical principles to the ideas confronting us, we are more likely to think of being skeptical in areas which we might normally be gullible. In addition, conscious skepticism can help us develop skeptical habits of thinking and if we get into the habit of thinking skeptically, we are again more likely to regard the claims of political and religious leaders with the same skepticism as we do used car salesman.
One of the best such formalizations I have ever encountered has been developed by Theodore Schick, Jr. and Lewis Vaughn. I first heard it in a lecture by them and it is available to all to read about in their book How To Think About Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age. This is really a fantastic book, designed as a text to teach people to think skeptically and critically about a wide number of subjects. The focus is of course alleged paranormal phenomena, but the principles can be applied very widely. In this article I will explain the formula they propose, but I recommend that people buy the book because you'll learn a lot more than I can explain here.
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1. State the claim
2. Examine the Evidence for the claim.
3. Consider Alternative hypotheses
4. Rate, according to the Criteria of adequacy, each Hypothesis.
State the Claim
Obviously, we won't be able to reasonably and critically examine any claims before we understand what it is. For that reason, it is necessary to have the claim stated as clearly and specifically as possible. Vague claims simply don't give us enough information to test. The assertion "God exists" is vague and uninformative. The assertion "An omniscient, omnipotent, supernatural, personal being exists." may not be perfect, but is clearly preferable.
Unfortunately, the paranormal and supernatural claims we typically encounter aren't as specific and clear as we would like but that is simply something we have to deal with.
Examine the Evidence for the Claim
Once we know exactly what the claim is supposed to be we can proceed to figure out what reasons there might be to accept it. Are there any logical or empirical arguments which give us cause to believe it? Maybe there are and maybe there aren't, but there is no point in bothering ourselves to believe it until we know more. The first step is to establish the nature and restrictions of the empirical evidence before us. Is it, for example, subject to the distortion of human perception and memory? Is there any ambiguity in the data? What reasons might there be to doubt it?
Another issue for us to consider is whether any of the reasons offered on behalf of a claim deserve to be rejected. Too often people will offer things like faith, wishful thinking or simply intuition. From a skeptical position, these simply aren't sufficient cause to accept a claim. This will be difficult to explain to a believer, but if they wish to submit their claims to critical inquiry they will simply have to cope with it.
The final and crucial question which must be addressed with regards to the evidence is whether or not the original claim actually explains the evidence offered. Many times we'll find that it doesn't and isn't even relevant to the evidence it is supposed to explain. An example of this which I encounter on a regular basis is someone starting with the vague claim "God exists" and then proceeding to offer as evidence "all of existence." Sadly, this is about as illuminating as the claim that my shoe is evidence that I can levitate.
Consider Alternative Hypotheses
One of the most difficult things for any believer is to seriously consider the possibility of some other hypothesis explaining the evidence. Unfortunately it is a bad idea to ever only consider a single hypothesis when seeking an answer to some question. Discovering the truth requires weighing the claim in question against other, alternative hypotheses along with the evidence in their favor.
Obviously this is where it is necessary to keep as open a mind as possible, especially when we happen to be investigating a claim which we ourselves are proposing and personally like. We have to try and set aside our biases in order to allow for the chance that a hypothesis other than what we currently believe serves to explain the data before us.
It is also important to remember that just because we cannot currently imagine some other hypothesis doesn’t mean that one does not exist. All too often when confronted by a strange event or spooky coincidence, people immediately assume that a supernatural or paranormal force has been at work and believe that this explains what happened. The problem stems from the fact that people typically need some sort of explanation to feel satisfied, and when a natural mundane one does not present itself, a supernatural one will serve. Skeptics need to be aware of this and willing to resist the temptation.
