Statistics

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We can see the use of statistics in a wide variety of aspects of our lives. In the news especially we encounter statistics - for example, about how certain behaviors will make us more likely to get a disease, about likely we are to die on the job, or even the odds of an asteroid hitting the earth and killing us all. But what do all of these statistics really mean? How are they calculated, and how should the numbers really be used in constructing an argument or defending a position?

People often have trouble interpreting and using statistics, both because they are insecure about math in general and because within math, statistics can be a difficult field in its own right. But because statistics are used (and misused) so much, it really would be beneficial if people would learn a bit more about them - and Jefferson Hane Weaver's recent book can help with that. This book doesn't teach exactly how statistic work and why they sometimes don't work, but it does show how they can lead a person astray and why any numbers should be treated carefully.

Most importantly, however, he does it in a way which is entertaining and accessible even to those who are phobic about numbers and mathematics. No advanced degrees are required for reading this because the examples were all picked based upon their entertainment value. Weaver explores topics such as the likelihood of getting hit on the head by a meteor, of having simultaneous multiple sex partners, of writing a bestseller, of getting into a top college, and more. He also isn't afraid to offer his personal opinions on the topics covered, for example the reasons why we have violent crime or the value of welfare assistance.

The topic that will probably interest people the most is the one which appears first: sex. Sex is popular, both as a topic of conversation and as an activity, with a recent survey showing that Ameicans have sex about 59.1 times each year. Aside from the obvious question of what that ".1" time entails, this figure raises a number of interesting issues which are repeating throughout the book on a variety of subjects.

The first, and most important, is the question of self-reporting: just how much can you really trust it? In the above figure, how well can we be sure that people remember how many times they had sex? Can you remember how many times you've washed your car or vacuumed the carpet during the past year? Then there is the problem of honesty - with almost every issue, there is the possibilty that people will be inclined to under- or over-report matters. With sex generally, people might be embarrassed to report doing it too little - and with certain sexual activities, they might be embarrassed to report doing it at all!

Through this and numerous other examples, Weaver explains how statistics are tools of limited effectiveness being used by people of limited effectiveness. Because of this, the numbers found in statistical reporting simply cannot tell us everything we need to know about a given subject - indeed, sometimes they can't tell us much at all. Most of the time, they only create more questions than they answer:

Perhaps the best we can do is to acknowledge that statistics are tools for measuring the prevalence of certain events and that the value of our statistics ultimately depends on the accuracy of our data. Because statistics are dependent on information which may or may not be completely accurate and verifiable, we need to accept the fact that they are limited means to limited ends. They will not necessarily provide us with deep intuitive or profound psychological insights.

If there is a defect to this book, it is the lack of more information regarding how statistics work and why - but then again, that might have driven off more readers. The back cover of the book gives the impression that such information is included, but in the book itself, Weaver makes it clear that that wasn't his goal. Instead, he wanted to write a book illustrating how statistics can be used through examples he found entertaining, amusing or even just silly - and this he does very well. If you read the book with this in mind, you won't be disappointed and should enjoy yourself.