Most people have a very poor understanding of statistics — they simply don't realize what is genuinely unlikely and what is actually very likely. Indeed, those who have paranormal beliefs tend to have the weakest comprehension of statistics. As a consequence, they label events as 'miracles' which are nothing of the sort.

The November/December 2005 Skeptical Inquirer discusses the allegedly “miraculous” survival of so many people after the Air France plane crashed in Toronto:

In modern hyperbole a miracle often simply means “unexpected good fortune” from the labeler’s perspective. Journalists, preferring sensationalism to statistics, saw the burning metal wreckage and incorrectly assumed the crash was unsurvivable without consulting experts. The traveling public, who already dramatically overestimate the dangers of air travel, have been primed by a fear-mongering news media to assume the worst.

The fact that all the passengers survived is almost certainly due to science, skill, and circumstance. Attributing the passengers’ survival to a miracle is an insult to the bravery, skill, and experience of the Flight 358 crew, who trained for years to handle just such emergencies. By all accounts, the Air France crew acted quickly and professionally during the emergency. They made sure that all passengers were buckled in for the landing and evacuated promptly.

Here we have all the makings for urban legends and misunderstandings: hyperbole, failures to consult experts and facts, knee-jerk assumptions based upon incorrect beliefs about statistics, and so forth. In the process, the real cause for the safety of the passengers — the skill, dedication, and hard work of the airplane crew (not to mention the airplane engineers and designers) — goes ignored.

It’s not unlike claims about a person’s “miraculous” survival from injury or illness which ignore all the time and work invested by skilled surgeons, physicians, nurses, and other medical professionals. If all that’s necessary to save people are “miracles,” why not simply pray instead of using safety equipment, having safety laws, and visiting hospitals? Why do people act prudentially and rely upon the skills of other human beings to save them, but then turn around afterwards and praise mythical beings or forces?

 

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