Whenever there is a disaster and people survive, apparently against all odds, the events tend to be labeled a miracle. The fact that some didn't survive almost isn't noticed - why didn't the miracle help them? Did they have insufficient faith? And what about the actions of human beings to help the victims? Why is God thanked but not other humans?

The November/December 2005 Skeptical Inquirer discusses the allegedly “miraculous” survival of so many people after the Air France plane crashed in Toronto:

The “miracle” label was perfect. It was a great news handle and a great silver lining in a dark storm cloud. However, it doesn’t fit the circumstances of Flight 358.

Aviation experts said that while the outcome of the crash was certainly fortunate, there was little miraculous about it. Mark Rosenker of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), was quoted in an MSNBC article as saying that “There is this myth out there that says if you’re involved in a catastrophic aircraft accident the odds are extremely low. [In fact], the odds are extremely high.”

According to an NTSB study of 568 crashes between 1983 and 2000, only five percent of passengers were killed; the remaining 95 percent escaped unharmed or without life-threatening injuries. In another study of more serious crashes, the odds were better than 50/50 that passengers got out alive. And crashes that occur on the ground, as Flight 358 did, often have very high survival rates.

One problem is the fact that most people have a very poor understanding of statistics — they simply don’t realize what is genuinely unlikely and what is actually very likely. Indeed, those who have paranormal beliefs tend to have the weakest comprehension of statistics. Aside from that, it’s a shame that all the engineers and designers who spend so much time making things safe are ignored when all their work proves useful. People claim that a “miracle” has happened when, in reality, all that’s happened is that human ingenuity and skill have saved us again.

There are no gods out there who will save us from our problems — we have to help ourselves. The people who have designed and built airplanes to be safer are examples of how we can accomplish this. We need to learn from their example rather than denigrate it by attributing their success to some mythical, fairy-tale being.

 

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• Religion 101
• Theism 101
• Does God Exist?
• Skepticism & Critical Thinking