Media reports on social issues are commonly accompanied by statistics about the issue - but to what extent can those statistics be trusted? Sometimes, numbers can be used to lie worse than words, perhaps because people implicitly trust numbers more. Instead, people need to exercise greater skepticism.

In the March 2005 issue of Skeptical Inquirer, Benjamin Radford writes in his article “Ringing False Alarms”:

The Department of Justice estimated that 440,000 children were lost or otherwise missing each year; such numbers are alarming but very misleading. David Finkelhor of the University of New Hampshire and director of the Crimes Against Children Research Center conducted a Justice Department study that found that the 440,000 figure includes children missing for any amount of time ranging from a few minutes to overnight.

Another analysis of the Justice Department figures (this one done by Statistical Assessment Service) found that 12 percent of the “lost” children simply forgot the time while 19 percent misunderstood parental instructions. In all, nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of the “lost” children were home within 24 hours.

In addition to all of this is the simple fact that most abducted children are taken by family members — usually someone involved in a custody fight with a spouse or ex-spouse. It’s still kidnapping, obviously, but there is a huge difference between a stranger luring young children into his car and a mother running off with her own child after losing a custody battle.

Thus, the statistics bandied about on how many children are abducted each year may scare parents, but they mask two very important facts which should mitigate the fear at the very least. The truth is, there isn’t all that much for parents to be scared about. Parents should be cautious, of course, but not as scared as the numbers might lead them to be.

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